If numbers tell a story, Maharashtra’s political landscape has thrown up an exciting one. Since the elections were announced, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made a dozen visits to the state, and will likely make another half a dozen, if not more, till May 20 — the fifth and the last phase of polling in Maharashtra. Add to this an equal number of visits in the 12 months leading up to the election announcement. Yet, as the state’s third phase polling gets underway on May 7, Maharashtra remains as enigmatic as ever for the BJP.
The gravity of the challenge in Maharashtra this time can be understood if seen in the light of the number of rallies — five — that the PM addressed in Maharashtra during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. There seems to be such nervousness in the BJP that the PM, in a rare instance, has presented himself twice in one district. All these facts hint at one thing: The BJP leadership’s belief that the state could turn out to be its Achilles’ heel and that it is too important to be left for the local hotchpotch alliance to manage. This has resulted in the PM and Home Minister Amit Shah virtually taking charge of the BJP’s campaign. In doing so, the PM’s actions also indicate, although indirectly, how little faith the party’s central leadership has in the tripartite government in Mumbai. Interestingly, there are quite a few reasons why the BJP leadership’s actions cannot be called unjustified.
First and foremost is the inability of the BJP, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP combine in presenting itself as a cohesive political force. The three-party alliance stumbled at every step and could barely finalise seat sharing within the stipulated time. In some cases, candidates were announced as the nomination deadline was coming to an end. Although the BJP tried to put up a brave front even after this, the deep divisions in the alliance were exposed. Not that the Opposition alliance of Congress, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena was any better. But compared to the BJP’s ambitions of “400 paar”, there is little at stake on the other side.
Another reason is the selection of candidates. The BJP, when it was in the opposition in Maharashtra, made a hue and cry about “corrupt” leaders from Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Pawar’s NCP. Over half a dozen of these leaders were under investigation by the central agencies, with some also being raided. Soon these leaders found salvation in the BJP — almost all of them are in the fray either from the BJP or from its alliance partners, giving credence to the “washing machine” allegation. The state BJP leadership is facing tough questions from its own cadres, who find it difficult to seek votes on behalf of candidates whose rightful place, according to them a few months ago, was in jail. The BJP needs national leaders to iron out differences at the local level, thus adding another layer of pressure on the Modi-Shah duo.
The third reason is the underwhelming performance of the younger Pawar in taking on Pawar Senior. The BJP, it seems, miscalculated on two counts: Ajit Pawar’s strength and Sharad Pawar’s tenacity. Ajit, by now, has been reduced to a “one-constituency leader” — Baramati — from where his wife Sunetra is contesting, while Pawar Sr has been on the move across the state, firing up the cadres and the Opposition. The fear of losing Baramati has pinned Ajit so badly that he even missed PM Modi’s rallies in constituencies where his supporters are in the fray. Ajit’s desperation to wrest Baramati from his uncle has also had a fair share in adding to Modi-Shah’s pressure in the state.
Another point that cannot be missed is the BJP’s apparent aversion to taking on its partner-turned-challenger, Thackeray’s Sena. In politics, it is easier to fight a traditional rival than a friend-turned-foe because at some point, while in power, both were familiar with each others’ underbelly. This explains the BJP’s seeming reluctance to challenge Uddhav’s men in the ring. Even though it is contesting as many as 28 seats, the BJP has limited direct fight with Thackeray’s Shiv Sena to four constituencies. There’s also a possibility that the BJP may be finding it a bit difficult to hit Uddhav’s candidates with the Hindutva hammer as they too have painted themselves in saffron. So it’s comparatively much easier for the BJP to slam the “original” secular sinners, Congress and NCP. But here too, the BJP’s hobnobbing with Ajit Pawar as well as the infamous early morning swearing-in of November 2019 comes in its way and limits how far the state leadership can go. And again the solution is the same: Bring in Modi-Shah.
Beyond all the noise about “400 paar” and giving Modi a third term lies another battle that will be fought soon after the Lok Sabha elections are over: The Maharashtra assembly elections, slated for October. The BJP has to mop up as many seats as possible in the general elections, failing which it could lose its bargaining power in the state polls. The BJP’s peak in the 288-member house was 122 seats, which was around 23 short of a simple majority. As things stand, the party is far from reaching its potential, thanks to its addiction to the game of defections. In the ongoing Parliamentary elections if, as projected, the Opposition combine manages to restrict the BJP and its alliance partners to 30 or so against its current tally of 42 in Maharashtra, well over 100 assembly seats would open up, thus making the game evenly poised. For the BJP, with Shinde and Ajit Pawar in tow, this would not be a comfortable position from which to contest the assembly elections.
This makes the ongoing election more challenging for the BJP than the Opposition which has hardly anything to lose. After all, in any battle it is always tougher for the one who enters the fight with a crown on his head than the one who is trying to snatch it. And in the case of Maharashtra, the BJP is wearing two, which is what forces Modi to return to the state again and again.
The writer is editor, Loksatta